I am going to short the whole country of South Africa
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph.
Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years.
That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American.
Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock.
I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems.
My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph.
Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years.
That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American.
Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock.
I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems.
My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
Cathie Wood owns 100% of palantir and 110% of Tesla
December 2021. Cathie Wood owns 100% of palantir and 110% of Tesla (Elon Musk invented a more efficient form of security). ARK ETFs are trading at minimum $1,000 a share and investors are signing 10-year pledges just for the privilege. I log on to my Tesla taxi app and order a car. A vintage Roadster pulls up with EDM playing at a tasteful volume.
"Where to, King?" asks the anime girl on the console. "You know where", I reply. Palantir knows.
We both laugh and the car takes off to Wendys.
December 2021. Cathie Wood owns 100% of palantir and 110% of Tesla (Elon Musk invented a more efficient form of security). ARK ETFs are trading at minimum $1,000 a share and investors are signing 10-year pledges just for the privilege. I log on to my Tesla taxi app and order a car. A vintage Roadster pulls up with EDM playing at a tasteful volume.
"Where to, King?" asks the anime girl on the console. "You know where", I reply. Palantir knows.
We both laugh and the car takes off to Wendys.
Thats why this place is so special.
Listen 5 years ago I wanted to get into investing. I came to this sub to get some advice. One guy helped me with a stock I could invest in.
It was dipping for a few days and I kept asking what I should do and he said hold. Kept quoting Warren buffet
On the third day I panicked and told him I had to sell. He sent me a video and told me to watch it before I sold.
It was a guy getting railed by jpow.
I lost 400 dollars that day but it taught me some lessons.
Now look at me. Been investing for over 3 years now. I was even on this gme thing. Yeah I could of made 8x the profits instead of 4 but I consider that my own fault.
But through this great sub and everything I have learned, I reinvested my profits and as of today
I am down 5 grand. Thats why this place is so special.
Listen 5 years ago I wanted to get into investing. I came to this sub to get some advice. One guy helped me with a stock I could invest in.
It was dipping for a few days and I kept asking what I should do and he said hold. Kept quoting Warren buffet
On the third day I panicked and told him I had to sell. He sent me a video and told me to watch it before I sold.
It was a guy getting railed by jpow.
I lost 400 dollars that day but it taught me some lessons.
Now look at me. Been investing for over 3 years now. I was even on this gme thing. Yeah I could of made 8x the profits instead of 4 but I consider that my own fault.
But through this great sub and everything I have learned, I reinvested my profits and as of today
I am down 5 grand. Thats why this place is so special.
So I’m an AMC shareholder
So I’m an AMC shareholder, which means I own some of the business. Because the stock kept getting halted today I decided to go to my local AMC and support the stock by buying some concessions. I went up to the stand and told the casher (his nametag said Melvin) that I was a shareholder and wanted to support the business. He looked excited and told me to close my eyes and hold out my hand for a surprise shareholder treat. I can’t believe it, but he just covered my hands in liquid butter! Now I’m typing this at home and cant get it off my hands, and my keyboard is all greasy typing this, What do I do?
So I’m an AMC shareholder, which means I own some of the business. Because the stock kept getting halted today I decided to go to my local AMC and support the stock by buying some concessions. I went up to the stand and told the casher (his nametag said Melvin) that I was a shareholder and wanted to support the business. He looked excited and told me to close my eyes and hold out my hand for a surprise shareholder treat. I can’t believe it, but he just covered my hands in liquid butter! Now I’m typing this at home and cant get it off my hands, and my keyboard is all greasy typing this, What do I do?
Man i love bull markets
Man i love bull markets. Tried to type in the ticker for MAXN yesterday to buy some but MAGN came up instead. Didn't know wtf it was but I was too lazy to redo my search so I bought that instead and it started mooning.
Man i love bull markets. Tried to type in the ticker for MAXN yesterday to buy some but MAGN came up instead. Didn't know wtf it was but I was too lazy to redo my search so I bought that instead and it started mooning.
I used to be a real ad