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I am going to short the whole country of South Africa
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph.
Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years.
That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American.
Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock.
I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems.
My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph.
Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years.
That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American.
Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock.
I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems.
My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
GME short squeeze
Lets dumb this down for you apes:
- Let's say 5 banana's currently cost 10 dollar
- One ape on the market has 5 banana's
- Snake asks to borrow 5 banana's for a bit and instead sells the 5 banana's thinking price will go down soon (shorting). he thinks he can buy them later for less and give them back to ape, so he make's profit on the difference.
- Group of apes notice what stupid snakes are doing and decide to buy all banana's on the market until snakes have no other choice than to buy from the group of apes in order to return what they borrowed
- If group of apes stay strong then price will go 🚀🚀🚀
Lets dumb this down for you apes:
- Let's say 5 banana's currently cost 10 dollar
- One ape on the market has 5 banana's
- Snake asks to borrow 5 banana's for a bit and instead sells the 5 banana's thinking price will go down soon (shorting). he thinks he can buy them later for less and give them back to ape, so he make's profit on the difference.
- Group of apes notice what stupid snakes are doing and decide to buy all banana's on the market until snakes have no other choice than to buy from the group of apes in order to return what they borrowed
- If group of apes stay strong then price will go 🚀🚀🚀
Thats why this place is so special.
Listen 5 years ago I wanted to get into investing. I came to this sub to get some advice. One guy helped me with a stock I could invest in.
It was dipping for a few days and I kept asking what I should do and he said hold. Kept quoting Warren buffet
On the third day I panicked and told him I had to sell. He sent me a video and told me to watch it before I sold.
It was a guy getting railed by jpow.
I lost 400 dollars that day but it taught me some lessons.
Now look at me. Been investing for over 3 years now. I was even on this gme thing. Yeah I could of made 8x the profits instead of 4 but I consider that my own fault.
But through this great sub and everything I have learned, I reinvested my profits and as of today
I am down 5 grand. Thats why this place is so special.
Listen 5 years ago I wanted to get into investing. I came to this sub to get some advice. One guy helped me with a stock I could invest in.
It was dipping for a few days and I kept asking what I should do and he said hold. Kept quoting Warren buffet
On the third day I panicked and told him I had to sell. He sent me a video and told me to watch it before I sold.
It was a guy getting railed by jpow.
I lost 400 dollars that day but it taught me some lessons.
Now look at me. Been investing for over 3 years now. I was even on this gme thing. Yeah I could of made 8x the profits instead of 4 but I consider that my own fault.
But through this great sub and everything I have learned, I reinvested my profits and as of today
I am down 5 grand. Thats why this place is so special.
I want JPow to use his full range of tools on me 😫
I want JPow to use his full range of tools on me 😫
I want JPow to use his full range of tools on me 😫
Fuck you all, I’m never listening to this sub again.
Yesterday I said we’d see a rally like we’ve never seen before
I was ridiculed and the market went down this morning so I accepted defeat and sold my nvda calls and got tesla puts.
My account is down bad right now. I also hedged with a tesla call so hopefully I’ll make something. Somehow oil also tanked.
Fuck you all. I’m only listening to myself now. You’re all retarded and so am I for listening to you.
Edit: not sure why some of you degens think I’m blaming you. Of course it’s my fault. This is a shitpost update. Stop taking it so seriously you retards
See you tomorrow
Yesterday I said we’d see a rally like we’ve never seen before
I was ridiculed and the market went down this morning so I accepted defeat and sold my nvda calls and got tesla puts.
My account is down bad right now. I also hedged with a tesla call so hopefully I’ll make something. Somehow oil also tanked.
Fuck you all. I’m only listening to myself now. You’re all retarded and so am I for listening to you.
Edit: not sure why some of you degens think I’m blaming you. Of course it’s my fault. This is a shitpost update. Stop taking it so seriously you retards
See you tomorrow
