It’s nighttime so of course solar energy stocks would be weak as fuck. Wait til morning when the sun rises & pumps them
I am going to short the whole country of South Africa
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph.
Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years.
That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American.
Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock.
I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems.
My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph.
Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years.
That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American.
Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock.
I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems.
My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
I'm buysexual
I’m buysexual, sometimes I’m a top (when I buy) and sometimes a bottom (when I sell)
I’m buysexual, sometimes I’m a top (when I buy) and sometimes a bottom (when I sell)
Oh my gourd, I am financially ruined (agricultural futures)
I have lost everything, and I'm not sure how to continue. This summer I invested $17,500 (six months salary and my entire life savings) into ornamental gourd futures, hoping to capitalize on this lucrative emerging industry. After watching a video about Vincent Kosuga and his monopoly on onions, I decided I'd try to do something similar with another vegetable. I did some research and found out many agricultural forecasters expected this year's gourd yield would be far smaller than the past, due to deteriorating soil conditions in central Mexico and a warmer-than-average spring. At first, demand soared around Halloween and prices skyrocketed, but the gourd bubble burst on November 12th. Unfortunately, the coronavirus caused a massive drop-off in demand due to fewer families decorating their tables for thanksgiving, and prices plummeted. I had invested early enough that I thought I would still be fine, but then on the morning of December 2nd, a new email in my inbox caused my stomach to turn into a pretzel. The massive gourd shipment from Argentina, scheduled for early March, had arrived. I was planning on selling off my futures right before this, in February, but this ruined everything. To top it off, the gourds in this shipment were absolutely gargantuan, some topping 4 pounds each, causing the price-per-pound to drop like an anchor into the range of 6 cents per pound. I am ruined.
I have lost everything, and I'm not sure how to continue. This summer I invested $17,500 (six months salary and my entire life savings) into ornamental gourd futures, hoping to capitalize on this lucrative emerging industry. After watching a video about Vincent Kosuga and his monopoly on onions, I decided I'd try to do something similar with another vegetable. I did some research and found out many agricultural forecasters expected this year's gourd yield would be far smaller than the past, due to deteriorating soil conditions in central Mexico and a warmer-than-average spring. At first, demand soared around Halloween and prices skyrocketed, but the gourd bubble burst on November 12th. Unfortunately, the coronavirus caused a massive drop-off in demand due to fewer families decorating their tables for thanksgiving, and prices plummeted. I had invested early enough that I thought I would still be fine, but then on the morning of December 2nd, a new email in my inbox caused my stomach to turn into a pretzel. The massive gourd shipment from Argentina, scheduled for early March, had arrived. I was planning on selling off my futures right before this, in February, but this ruined everything. To top it off, the gourds in this shipment were absolutely gargantuan, some topping 4 pounds each, causing the price-per-pound to drop like an anchor into the range of 6 cents per pound. I am ruined.
GME investor thinking what they will do after they're rich
If all this plays out as the DD states (it will), the system is going to be bled so bad it's going to make the recession look like childs play. Even if it's a fraction of the maximum damage some of the highest end DD states, we are still going to breach numbers beyond our wildest dreams. I think it is important that you take more than a few moments to yourself to recognize the gravity of that kind of lifechanging occurrence.
Personally, in my dream world after all this is over, I'd like to imagine the following scenario:
Apes gain enough money to impart systemic change on a global scale. We have apes from literally every corner of the world in this play. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if a scientist on Antarctica was in on this. That is a global redistribution of wealth. This isn't just the US that benefits. The Europoors are here in droves, I've seen posts from a Phillipino trying to help his dad and a South American who cobbled together 3 months wages to buy 1 share of Gamestop. ONE SHARE FOR THREE MONTHS WAGES! Imagine that level of poverty disparity for one second. That person is going to come into that global economy money. If she held out to the top end, imagine what kind of change she could impart on her community to help invest in infrastructure, businesses, technology. Things that are lacking in her neighborhood. I live in Mexico (but am American) and personally, I would love to use the money to help fix Mexico's sewage problem so we can finally drink the tap water.
Maybe these projects can't be done on a governmental scale. You'll be helping a percentage of your community that you can afford with the money you have. But, if everyone, and I mean everyone, who made money off this play used it to invest in their communities, imagine the growth?
The World Health Organization said that it would only cost $30 billion dollars to fix world hunger. What if we get trillions? Individually, across the entire world, we could grow just about every nook and cranny of society based on what we know for our respective territories. Remember the age old issue of "starving children in Africa"? As an American, we literally hear that all the time from our parents if we don't clean our plates off. It's like making a joke of a serious issue that has gone ignored for god knows how long. Maybe the wealth that gets transferred to individuals in Africa will be more effective than the money that is being used now for infrastructure and societal projects in those regions because they actually care because they're a regular, empathetic, caring person. I don't know what all the current problems are in the world. Media is not a very good outlet for communicating all the problems in the world because there are just TOO MANY. but I know what the current problems are in MY area. Really, as long as you're investing in other people who do these things because they have more expertise, that is totally fine. Playing the stock market is actually a really good way to vote with your money. Just contribute back.
So, in my perfect world, none of you bought actual lambos (well, maybe treat yourself if you end up one of the $500 million/share moonshotters). None of you bought mega mansions or $100,000 watches. You lived an upper modest life, because you deserve that for having the cohones to play this play. You don't support those industries that cater exclusively to people who have so much money they'd rather buy something monumentally expensive than be more mindful of their environment and try to improve it. Imagine if all of us just became more asshole rich people? The people we used to hate because all they did was buy luxurious items while the world burned around them. What you did was you were maybe a Flint, Michigan resident and you helped fix the plumbing to some degree, but got the city to pay you based on the water usage. You were a resident where power is inconsistent and you build some solar panels and charged the city for their use. You were a citizen where food is sparse and poverty is immense, and you invest in farms and you sell locally. Whatever you're passionate about that's a problem in your area.
And not just that:
We continue our immense collective power to amass information on stuff that's important that will also make us a shit load of money (because the more we make, the more we can fix our own problems). I really hope we don't see a day where the DD stops flowing. We can't let such an information engine die after this. Can you imagine what knowledge we'd find if we dedicated our efforts on learning something else like we did with GME?
Going further than my previous example, I would love to see a world where there are focused mega-projects we decide to work on as an investigative unit. Dig into theories of why they're not working, what could be done to improve it, and who can or is doing it so we can financially support them (assuming they have sound business models).
I'm definitely writing this stoned off my tits, so maybe this will be just the musings of someone who likes the stock, but it felt like something worth talking about because I'm not sure we'll get another opportunity like this for generations. I can't even really think of the LAST massive citizen wealth distribution we had and frankly, I'm too lazy to google it, but it was a long ass time ago I'm sure.
I'm just really jazzed about all this. It feels like a giant ass step forward for humanity, if I'm being honest (and again, really stoned. In fact, the longer I write this, the more stoned I'm becoming). I feel like the world powers lost their grip on control for a moment and you know what? Everything is alright. Maybe one day we will actually ease up on all this conflict and start working together as a species.
End rant. Lord. If anyone actually reads this, I'll be surprised xD.
Edit: Oof. Just read this nasty piece of news: https://futurism.com/the-byte/scientists-mass-extinction-organisms-flee-equator What if this becomes our next project? Fix the environment, one city at a time.
Thanks for joining me in my musings
Edit2: You know what I'm gonna do? When I get my tendies I'm gonna hire some software coders and web designers to make a site that tracks the perceived importance of issues, voted on by the people and link them to subreddit communities for people who want to help. You might have to look at some ads, so I can keep it free, but it could be a nice way to rally the world to certain causes or act as a metric for world notice/care/importance.
If all this plays out as the DD states (it will), the system is going to be bled so bad it's going to make the recession look like childs play. Even if it's a fraction of the maximum damage some of the highest end DD states, we are still going to breach numbers beyond our wildest dreams. I think it is important that you take more than a few moments to yourself to recognize the gravity of that kind of lifechanging occurrence.
Personally, in my dream world after all this is over, I'd like to imagine the following scenario:
Apes gain enough money to impart systemic change on a global scale. We have apes from literally every corner of the world in this play. Hell, I wouldn't be surprised if a scientist on Antarctica was in on this. That is a global redistribution of wealth. This isn't just the US that benefits. The Europoors are here in droves, I've seen posts from a Phillipino trying to help his dad and a South American who cobbled together 3 months wages to buy 1 share of Gamestop. ONE SHARE FOR THREE MONTHS WAGES! Imagine that level of poverty disparity for one second. That person is going to come into that global economy money. If she held out to the top end, imagine what kind of change she could impart on her community to help invest in infrastructure, businesses, technology. Things that are lacking in her neighborhood. I live in Mexico (but am American) and personally, I would love to use the money to help fix Mexico's sewage problem so we can finally drink the tap water.
Maybe these projects can't be done on a governmental scale. You'll be helping a percentage of your community that you can afford with the money you have. But, if everyone, and I mean everyone, who made money off this play used it to invest in their communities, imagine the growth?
The World Health Organization said that it would only cost $30 billion dollars to fix world hunger. What if we get trillions? Individually, across the entire world, we could grow just about every nook and cranny of society based on what we know for our respective territories. Remember the age old issue of "starving children in Africa"? As an American, we literally hear that all the time from our parents if we don't clean our plates off. It's like making a joke of a serious issue that has gone ignored for god knows how long. Maybe the wealth that gets transferred to individuals in Africa will be more effective than the money that is being used now for infrastructure and societal projects in those regions because they actually care because they're a regular, empathetic, caring person. I don't know what all the current problems are in the world. Media is not a very good outlet for communicating all the problems in the world because there are just TOO MANY. but I know what the current problems are in MY area. Really, as long as you're investing in other people who do these things because they have more expertise, that is totally fine. Playing the stock market is actually a really good way to vote with your money. Just contribute back.
So, in my perfect world, none of you bought actual lambos (well, maybe treat yourself if you end up one of the $500 million/share moonshotters). None of you bought mega mansions or $100,000 watches. You lived an upper modest life, because you deserve that for having the cohones to play this play. You don't support those industries that cater exclusively to people who have so much money they'd rather buy something monumentally expensive than be more mindful of their environment and try to improve it. Imagine if all of us just became more asshole rich people? The people we used to hate because all they did was buy luxurious items while the world burned around them. What you did was you were maybe a Flint, Michigan resident and you helped fix the plumbing to some degree, but got the city to pay you based on the water usage. You were a resident where power is inconsistent and you build some solar panels and charged the city for their use. You were a citizen where food is sparse and poverty is immense, and you invest in farms and you sell locally. Whatever you're passionate about that's a problem in your area.
And not just that:
We continue our immense collective power to amass information on stuff that's important that will also make us a shit load of money (because the more we make, the more we can fix our own problems). I really hope we don't see a day where the DD stops flowing. We can't let such an information engine die after this. Can you imagine what knowledge we'd find if we dedicated our efforts on learning something else like we did with GME?
Going further than my previous example, I would love to see a world where there are focused mega-projects we decide to work on as an investigative unit. Dig into theories of why they're not working, what could be done to improve it, and who can or is doing it so we can financially support them (assuming they have sound business models).
I'm definitely writing this stoned off my tits, so maybe this will be just the musings of someone who likes the stock, but it felt like something worth talking about because I'm not sure we'll get another opportunity like this for generations. I can't even really think of the LAST massive citizen wealth distribution we had and frankly, I'm too lazy to google it, but it was a long ass time ago I'm sure.
I'm just really jazzed about all this. It feels like a giant ass step forward for humanity, if I'm being honest (and again, really stoned. In fact, the longer I write this, the more stoned I'm becoming). I feel like the world powers lost their grip on control for a moment and you know what? Everything is alright. Maybe one day we will actually ease up on all this conflict and start working together as a species.
End rant. Lord. If anyone actually reads this, I'll be surprised xD.
Edit: Oof. Just read this nasty piece of news: https://futurism.com/the-byte/scientists-mass-extinction-organisms-flee-equator What if this becomes our next project? Fix the environment, one city at a time.
Thanks for joining me in my musings
Edit2: You know what I'm gonna do? When I get my tendies I'm gonna hire some software coders and web designers to make a site that tracks the perceived importance of issues, voted on by the people and link them to subreddit communities for people who want to help. You might have to look at some ads, so I can keep it free, but it could be a nice way to rally the world to certain causes or act as a metric for world notice/care/importance.
I used to be a real ad