Graham Stephen is a real estate YouTuber known for his normie audience and stinginess: https://www.reddit.com/r/wallstreetbets/comments/klyw9y/what_are_your_moves_tomorrow_december_29_2020/ghd1spt/
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I am going to short the whole country of South Africa
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph.
Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years.
That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American.
Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock.
I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems.
My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
I assure you, this ISN'T going to get political. Because by all accounts South Africa is screwed. My planned position is bottom paragraph.
Under the current ANC government there has been a general degeneration of all aspects of South Africa. Due to systemic nepotism, there are math teachers that don't know what square roots are, army officers that can't read, and cops that have never fired a gun. The practice of fictitious employees that take checks but don't work there is widespread enough that the government has drove itself into insolvency already. Estimates are that some 80% of government funds are misused in some way, ranging from government subsidies given to businesses owned by government officials to simply going missing from accounts. The ANC solved this, against advise of wiser people, with quantitative easing. Which is a fancy term for printing money, and since they could never possibly reverse that printer they're inflating the South African Rand which is why they've had two bouts of inflation near 9% twice in the past 20 years.
That is all besides how the largely defunct government doesn't prevent anything on the ground. Roaming bands of pirates (many affiliates of the Marxist Economic Freedom Fighter party) will poison guard dogs and torture and murder residents often for as little as car keys and groceries. Many communities are functionally independent and take the law in their own hands, and in many areas utilities are defunct (untreated sewage goes in the river, untreated tap water comes out and it smells as disgusting as it sounds). South Africans are more likely to have their asylum applications accepted than any other nation as there are so many tales of rape and murder and threats of ethnic cleansing. This equates to the most educated citizens leaving SA and most SA based businesses diversifying out of the country as literacy rates have been falling. These disillusioned departures are not new, as they include the most famous Afrikaner in history Elon Musk who is now a naturalized American.
Edit: The Economic Freedom Fighter's usual acronym isn't used because it's also the ticker for a penny stock.
I first thought about shorting South Africa over a year ago when I was researching the country (I'm a historian, I read much on the country for fun). I found the only index tracking SA (EZA) wasn't an accurate representation of SA economy and buying puts on it was useless. It tracked only the largest cap firms, which are the aforementioned companies diversifying out of SA (mostly to other parts of Africa). Which is why it's a volatile ETF that overall trades sideways. Buying puts on it wouldn't really capitalize on SA going full Rhodesia/Zimbabwe. Zimbabwe having experienced the general breakup of modern institutions and hyperinflation due to similar problems.
My new broker, IBKR, allows negative currency positions as long you post 10% as collateral. Now my native currency are US dollars, where inflation in 2020 was 1.4% while the South African Rand's inflation was 4.12% in 2020. That equals a 26.8% return on investment per year from that simple short position. But I'm expecting US Dollar inflation to stay between 1-2% a year while the Rand (ticker ZAR) stays north of 4% with inflation spikes inevitable over the next decade. This position also reduces my market beta, much needed for me as I've got hugely leveraged positions on American ETFs. This isn't a short term swing trade, I'm waiting for SA to implode.
Which one of you got reddit to send me this
Which one of you fucks got reddit to send me this shit
"Hi there,
A concerned redditor reached out to us about you.
When you're in the middle of something painful, it may feel like you don't have a lot of options."
Which one of you fucks got reddit to send me this shit
"Hi there,
A concerned redditor reached out to us about you.
When you're in the middle of something painful, it may feel like you don't have a lot of options."
WSB Choose your fighter
Choose your fighter
Alex Magikarp ๐
Elon TechnoCuckLord ๐ค+๐คด
Jeff Divorcedzos ๐
Salmonella ๐ Nutella ๐ซ
Bill "HELL Giga GUH is coming" Clownman ๐คก
Chamath, "I'm abouta fuck shit up" Papaya ๐
Ryan Cocken your butthole ๐ฅ๐ฆ ๐๐๐ณ
๐ฅ Z ๐ฅ U ๐ฅ C ๐ฅ C ๐ฅ
Tim ๐ Bottom ๐ ฑ๏ธENIS
Jack Ma MIA ๐คทโโ๏ธ
Cathie "A prayer a day keeps the ๐ปs' away" or "Jesus, take my buying power" Woods ๐โ๏ธ
Choose your fighter
Alex Magikarp ๐
Elon TechnoCuckLord ๐ค+๐คด
Jeff Divorcedzos ๐
Salmonella ๐ Nutella ๐ซ
Bill "HELL Giga GUH is coming" Clownman ๐คก
Chamath, "I'm abouta fuck shit up" Papaya ๐
Ryan Cocken your butthole ๐ฅ๐ฆ ๐๐๐ณ
๐ฅ Z ๐ฅ U ๐ฅ C ๐ฅ C ๐ฅ
Tim ๐ Bottom ๐ ฑ๏ธENIS
Jack Ma MIA ๐คทโโ๏ธ
Cathie "A prayer a day keeps the ๐ปs' away" or "Jesus, take my buying power" Woods ๐โ๏ธ
Damn missed the TSLA pump
Damn missed the TSLA pump... just like last week... and last month.... and last year
Damn missed the TSLA pump... just like last week... and last month.... and last year
Unrealized losses
She runs her hand through your thinning hair and laughs. โWhat?โ you ask absentmindedly. Youโre looking at Futures, and youโre surprised to see them red.
โI want you to play with me.โ She says it playfully, but the single ounce of you that isnโt totally aloof realizes she said this in earnest. And so you do. You throw your phone, and you pin her to the sofa, then the ground. You both roll about, wrestling, like lion cubs. Kissing, lightly biting. Sometime later, you both stop, breathing hard. She grabs an open bottle of red wine, and you pass it back and forth. Eventually she says, โI want to do that more.โ
But youโve already found your phone again to check Futures. Still red. โUh huh,โ you say, distracted. She stares at you for a long moment, but you donโt realize it. Silently, she gets up and goes to bed, and you donโt say a word because you donโt notice.
She hasnโt left you yet, but she will soon.
Unrealized losses.
She runs her hand through your thinning hair and laughs. โWhat?โ you ask absentmindedly. Youโre looking at Futures, and youโre surprised to see them red.
โI want you to play with me.โ She says it playfully, but the single ounce of you that isnโt totally aloof realizes she said this in earnest. And so you do. You throw your phone, and you pin her to the sofa, then the ground. You both roll about, wrestling, like lion cubs. Kissing, lightly biting. Sometime later, you both stop, breathing hard. She grabs an open bottle of red wine, and you pass it back and forth. Eventually she says, โI want to do that more.โ
But youโve already found your phone again to check Futures. Still red. โUh huh,โ you say, distracted. She stares at you for a long moment, but you donโt realize it. Silently, she gets up and goes to bed, and you donโt say a word because you donโt notice.
She hasnโt left you yet, but she will soon.
Unrealized losses.
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